不要误以为现在发生的事情主要是关于关税

At
this moment, a huge amount of attention is being justifiably paid to
the announced tariffs and their very big impacts on markets and
economies while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances
that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still
ahead. 此刻，人们正合理地将大量注意力放在已宣布的关税及其对市场和经济的巨大影响上，而很少关注导致这些关税的情况以及可能仍在前方的最大破坏。

Don't
get me wrong, while these tariff announcements are very important
developments and we all know that President Trump caused them, most
people are losing sight of the underlying circumstances that got him
elected president and brought these tariffs about. They are also mostly
overlooking the vastly more important forces that are driving just about
everything, including the
tariffs.不要误会我的意思，虽然这些关税公告是非常重要的发展，我们都知道特朗普总统导致了这些关税，但大多数人忽视了使他当选总统并带来这些关税的潜在情况。他们也大多忽视了推动几乎所有事情的更为重要的力量，包括关税。

The
far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are
seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and
geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a
lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar
unsustainable conditions were in place.更大、更重要的事情是，我们正在目睹主要货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的经典崩溃。这种崩溃大约一生只发生一次，但在历史上，当类似不可持续的条件存在时，它们已经发生过多次。

More specifically:更具体地说：

1. The monetary/economic order is breaking down because
   there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too
   fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this
   unsustainably large debt. 货币/经济秩序正在崩溃，因为现有债务过多，新增债务的速度过快，现有资本市场和经济体由这种不可持续的大量债务支撑。

   
   

   The
   debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a)
   debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on too much debt
   because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the
   United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too
   much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the
   borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies.债务不可持续是因为存在巨大的不平衡：a) 债务人借款人欠下过多债务，并因依赖债务来为其过度消费融资而承担过多债务（例如，美国）；b) 贷方债权人（如中国）已经持有过多债务，并依赖向借款人债务人（如美国）出售商品来维持其经济。

   
   

   There
   are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or
   another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. 这些不平衡面临巨大的压力，需要以某种方式得到纠正，而这样做将以重大方式改变货币秩序。

   
   

   For
   example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade
   imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in
   which the major players can't trust that the other major players won't
   cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or
   pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). 例如，在一个主要参与者无法信任其他主要参与者不会切断他们所需物品供应（这是美国的担忧）或支付他们所欠款项（这是中国的担忧）的去全球化世界中，同时存在巨大的贸易不平衡和资本不平衡显然是不协调的。

   
   

   This
   is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which
   self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied
   history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly
   led to the same sorts of problems we're seeing now.  这是因为这些国家处于一种战争状态，其中自给自足至关重要。任何研究过历史的人都知道，在这种情况下，这种风险反复导致我们现在看到的同类问题。

   
   

   So,
   the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China
   manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt
   assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make
   those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. 因此，旧的货币/经济秩序，即中国等国家以低价制造产品，卖给美国人，并获取美国债务资产，而美国人从中国等国家借钱进行这些购买并积累巨额债务负担，将不得不改变。
   

   
   

   These
   obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact
   that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both
   hollows out middle class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import
   needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy.这些显然不可持续的情况更加不可持续，因为它们导致美国制造业恶化，这不仅削弱了美国的中产阶级工作，还要求美国从一个越来越被视为敌人的国家进口所需物品。

   
   

   In
   an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances,
   which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink
   one way or another. Also, it should be obvious that the U.S. government
   debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to
   is unsustainable. 在去全球化的时代，这些反映贸易和资本互联的大规模贸易和资本失衡将不得不以某种方式缩小。此外，美国政府的债务水平及其增加的速度显然是不可持续的。 

   
   

   (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.) Clearly,
   the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce
   all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the
   process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to
   this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at
   another time.你可以在我的新书《How
   Countries Go Broke: The Big
   Cycle》中找到对此的分析。）显然，货币秩序将不得不以巨大的破坏性方式改变，以减少所有这些不平衡和过剩，而我们正处于这一变化过程的早期阶段。这对资本市场有巨大的影响，并且对经济有巨大的影响，我将在另一个时间深入探讨。
   

   
   

2. The domestic political order is breaking down due
   to huge gaps in people's education levels, opportunity levels,
   productivity levels, income and wealth levels, and values—and because of
   the ineffectiveness of the existing political order to fix things.由于人们在教育水平、机会水平、生产力水平、收入和财富水平以及价值观上的巨大差距，以及现有政治秩序在解决问题上的无效性，国内政治秩序正在瓦解。
   
   

   These
   conditions are manifest in win-at-all-cost fights between populists of
   the right and populists of the left over which side will have the power
   and control to run things. 这些情况表现为左右民粹主义者之间不惜一切代价的斗争，争夺哪一方将拥有权力和控制权来管理事务。

   
   

   This
   is leading to democracies breaking down because democracies require
   compromise and adherence to the rule of law, and history has shown that
   both break down at times like those we are now in. 这导致民主制度的崩溃，因为民主制度需要妥协和遵守法治，而历史表明，在我们现在所处的时期，这两者都会崩溃。

   
   

   History
   also shows that strong autocratic leaders emerge as classic democracy
   and classic rule of law are removed as barriers to autocratic
   leadership. 历史还表明，随着经典民主和经典法治被移除作为对专制领导的障碍，强大的专制领导者会出现。

   
   

   Obviously,
   the current unstable political situation will be affected by the other
   four forces I’m referring to here—e.g., problems in the stock market and
   economy will likely create political and geopolitical
   problems.显然，目前不稳定的政治局势将受到我在此提到的其他四种力量的影响，例如，股市和经济问题可能会引发政治和地缘政治问题。

   
   

3. The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power (the U.S.) that dictates the order that other countries follow is over. 国际地缘政治世界秩序正在瓦解，因为由一个主导力量（美国）主导其他国家遵循的秩序的时代已经结束。

   
   

   The
   multilateral, cooperative world order the U.S. led is being replaced by
   a unilateral, power-rules approach. In this new order, the U.S. is
   still largest power in the world and is shifting to a unilateral,
   "America first" approach. 美国主导的多边合作世界秩序正在被单边的、以实力为主导的方法所取代。在这个新秩序中，美国仍然是世界上最大的力量，并正在转向单边的“美国优先”方法。

   
   

   We are now seeing that manifest in the U.S. led trade-war, geopolitical war, technology war, and, in some cases, military wars.我们现在看到这在美国主导的贸易战、地缘政治战争、技术战争以及在某些情况下的军事战争中得以体现。

   
   

4. Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive, and自然灾害（干旱、洪水和流行病）越来越具有破坏性，并且

   
   

5. Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life, including
   the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international
   order (by affecting interactions between countries economically and
   militarily), and the costs of acts of nature.技术的惊人变化，如人工智能，将对生活的各个方面产生重大影响，包括货币/债务/经济秩序、政治秩序、国际秩序（通过影响国家之间的经济和军事互动）以及自然灾害的成本。

   
   

Changes in these forces and how they are affecting each other is what we should be focusing on.我们应该关注的是这些力量的变化以及它们如何相互影响。

For
that reason, I urge you to not to let news-grabbing dramatic changes
like the tariffs draw your attention away from these five big forces and
their interrelationships, which are the real drivers of Overall Big
Cycles changes.为此，我敦促你不要让像关税这样的新闻引人注目的戏剧性变化分散你的注意力，而忽视了这五大力量及其相互关系，它们才是整体大周期变化的真正驱动因素。

If
you allow yourself to be distracted by them, you will a) miss how the
conditions and the dynamics of these big forces are causing these
news-making changes, 如果你让自己被它们分心，你将会 a) 错过这些大力量的条件和动态如何导致这些新闻变化，

b) fail to think through how these news-making changes will affect these big forces, b) 未能深入思考这些新闻变化将如何影响这些大力量，

and
c) fail to keep focused on how this Overall Big Cycle and the parts
that drive it typically transpire, which will tell you a lot about what
is likely to happen.以及 c) 未能专注于这个整体大周期及其驱动部分通常如何发生，这将告诉你很多关于可能发生的事情。

I also urge you to think about the interrelationships that are critically important. 我也敦促你思考那些至关重要的相互关系。

For
example, think about how  Donald Trump's actions on tariffs will affect
1) the monetary/market, economy order (it will be disruptive to it),例如，思考唐纳德·特朗普在关税上的行动将如何影响 1）货币/市场、经济秩序（这将对其造成破坏），

 2) the domestic political order (it will likely be disruptive to it as it will probably undermine his support),2）国内政治秩序（这可能会破坏它，因为这可能会削弱他的支持），

 3)
the international geopolitical order (it will be disruptive to it in
many obvious ways that are financial, economic, political, and
geopolitical) 3）国际地缘政治秩序（这将在许多显而易见的方面造成破坏，包括金融、经济、政治和地缘政治），

4) climate (it will somewhat undermine the world’s ability to deal with the climate change issue effectively),4）气候（这将在一定程度上削弱世界有效应对气候变化问题的能力），

 and
5) technology development (it will be disruptive in some positive ways
to the U.S., like bringing more technology production into the U.S., and
in some harmful ways, like being disruptive to the capital markets that
are needed to support technology development and in too many other ways
to innumerate here.)以及 5）技术发展（这将在某些积极方面对美国造成破坏，比如将更多的技术生产带入美国，也在某些有害方面造成破坏，比如对支持技术发展的资本市场造成破坏，以及其他太多无法在此列举的方式）。

As
you do this, it’s helpful to keep in mind that what is happening now is
just a contemporary version of what has happened innumerable times
throughout history.在你这样做的时候，记住现在发生的事情只是历史上无数次发生过的事情的当代版本是有帮助的。 

I
urge you to study the actions that policy makers took in analogous past
cases in which they found themselves in similar positions to help you
build a list of things that they might do—things like suspending debt
service payments to "enemy" countries, establishing capital controls to
prevent the free flow of capital out of the country, and imposing
special taxes. 我敦促你研究政策制定者在类似情况下采取的行动，以帮助你建立他们可能采取的措施清单——例如暂停对“敌对”国家的债务服务支付、建立资本管制以防止资本自由流出国境，以及征收特别税。

Many of these things would’ve been unimaginable not long ago, so we should also study how these policies work. 这些措施中的许多在不久前还是难以想象的，所以我们也应该研究这些政策的运作方式。

The
breakdowns in the monetary, political, and geopolitical orders that
take the forms of depressions, civil wars, and world wars, that then
lead to the new monetary, political orders that govern interactions
within countries, and the geopolitical orders that govern interactions
between countries until they break down, have all happened repeatedly
and are the most important things to understand well. 货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的崩溃以萧条、内战和世界大战的形式出现，然后导致新的货币、政治秩序来管理国家内部的互动，以及地缘政治秩序来管理国家之间的互动，直到它们崩溃，这些都反复发生，是最重要的事情，需要很好地理解。

I described them in detail in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order so you
can see it clearly laid out there. The Overall Big Cycle is described
in six clearly identifiable stages that unfold as one order becomes the
next. 我在我的书《Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order》中详细描述了它们，你可以在那里清楚地看到。 整个大周期被描述为六个明显可识别的阶段，这些阶段在一个秩序变成下一个秩序时展开。

It
is laid out in such detail that it is easy to compare what is now
happening with what typically happens, so it is possible to identify
what stage the cycle is in and what is likely to come next.它被详细地列出，以至于很容易将当前发生的事情与通常发生的事情进行比较，因此可以识别出周期处于哪个阶段以及接下来可能会发生什么。

When I wrote that book and my other books, I hoped, as I still do, that I would be able 当我写那本书和我的其他书时，我希望，也仍然希望，我能够 

1) to help policy makers understand these forces and interact with them to produce better policies so we get better results, 1）帮助政策制定者理解这些力量并与之互动，以制定更好的政策，从而获得更好的结果，

2)
to help individuals who can collectively but not individually affect
policies to deal with these forces well so they could get better results
for themselves and those they care about,2）帮助那些可以集体但不能单独影响政策的个人很好地应对这些力量，以便他们能够为自己和他们关心的人获得更好的结果，

and
3) to encourage smart people who have different views than mine to have
open, thoughtful exchanges with me so that we can all try to get at
what is true and what to do about it.3）鼓励那些与我有不同观点的聪明人进行开放、深思熟虑的交流，以便我们都能努力找出真相以及如何应对。

The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.本文中表达的观点是我个人的，不一定代表桥水的观点。